ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003 EYEWALL CONVECTION WARMS AND COOLS...BUT OVERALL THE SATELLITE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE SINCE THE 06Z RECONNAISSANCE MISSION. WHILE THE WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE 120 KT...WE PREFER TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ALONE UNTIL THE NEXT FLIGHT NEAR 18Z. AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS A LITTLE PINCHED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYLONE ASSOCIATED WITH FABIAN WILL ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 295/9...AND RIGHT OF THAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TURN TO THE RIGHT...AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS TURN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EAST AND FAST AND THE GFS AND GFDL MORE WEST AND SLOW. THE CONSENSUS OF THESE FOUR MODELS HAS PERFORMED SPECTACULARLY WITH FABIAN SO FAR...WITH A MEAN ERROR AT 4 DAYS OF ONLY 40 NM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS CONSENSUS AND I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THAT THINKING NOW. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM FABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 20.3N 60.4W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 20.9N 61.6W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 22.2N 62.9W 120 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.5N 64.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 25.1N 65.3W 110 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 67.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 66.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 43.0N 61.0W 85 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC