Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
AN SSMI PASS AT 0036Z SHOWS THAT AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE PERSISTS AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE AT 65
KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KT.  WITH WARM SSTS AND MINIMAL
VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO
93 AND 101 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO A CONSERVATIVE
90 KT IN 72 HOURS.
  
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 290/13.  THE UKMET...
NOGPAS...AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ONLY THE GFS
MODEL MOVES FABIAN DUE WESTWARD FOR FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 16.5N  46.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 17.1N  48.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.8N  50.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  52.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  55.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  58.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 21.5N  62.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  65.5W    90 KT
 
 
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