ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003 AN SSMI PASS AT 0036Z SHOWS THAT AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE AT 65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KT. WITH WARM SSTS AND MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 93 AND 101 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO A CONSERVATIVE 90 KT IN 72 HOURS. THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 290/13. THE UKMET... NOGPAS...AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. ONLY THE GFS MODEL MOVES FABIAN DUE WESTWARD FOR FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GUIDANCE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.5N 46.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 17.1N 48.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.8N 50.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 18.5N 52.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 55.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 58.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 21.5N 62.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 90 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC