Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A GOOD COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON
MORE OF A BANDED APPEARANCE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. AN EXPERIMENTAL
SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0040 UTC INDICATED THAT THE WINDS
ARE 25-30 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.   
 
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT
275/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE UNKNOWN
IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N/45W WILL
PROVIDE AN OPENING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR RECURVATURE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION AND AS A
RESULT COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION. ON THE
OTHER HAND...I THINK THESE MODELS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS STARTING TO
ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING IS THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT INDICATE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60
HOURS.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND THE UPPER
WINDS FAVORABLE.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 14.8N  33.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.1N  35.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.6N  38.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.1N  41.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N  44.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 18.0N  49.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  53.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  57.0W    55 KT
 
 
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