ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A GOOD COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF A BANDED APPEARANCE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. AN EXPERIMENTAL SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0040 UTC INDICATED THAT THE WINDS ARE 25-30 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT 275/16. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE UNKNOWN IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N/45W WILL PROVIDE AN OPENING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR RECURVATURE. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION AND AS A RESULT COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...I THINK THESE MODELS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND THE UPPER WINDS FAVORABLE. THESE FACTORS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 14.8N 33.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 15.1N 35.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 15.6N 38.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 16.1N 41.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 44.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 18.0N 49.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 53.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 57.0W 55 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC