Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003
 
ERIKA HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED. THERE IS VERY DEEP
CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW BUT LATEST AVAILABLE RADAR DATA
INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE NO LONGER WELL-DEFINED.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS AND FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ERIKA HAS
BECOME PRIMARILY A RAIN PRODUCER.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING ABOUT 255 DEGREES OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THE
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP/GFS MODEL
BRINGS A VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS AND THEN IT SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT. WE SHALL SEE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 24.6N  99.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 105.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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