ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003 ERIKA HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW BUT LATEST AVAILABLE RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE NO LONGER WELL-DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ERIKA HAS BECOME PRIMARILY A RAIN PRODUCER. ERIKA IS MOVING ABOUT 255 DEGREES OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP/GFS MODEL BRINGS A VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND THEN IT SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT. WE SHALL SEE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 24.6N 99.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 24.0N 105.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC