Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003
THE LAST RECON NEAR 12Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINED
AT 1008 MB. HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS...A GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40
KNOTS AT 12Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS CONTROLLING THE STEERING CURRENTS
AND BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST....A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WOULD BRING ERIKA TO THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 26.1N 91.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 26.1N 94.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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