ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003 THE LAST RECON NEAR 12Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINED AT 1008 MB. HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS...A GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40 KNOTS AT 12Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS CONTROLLING THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST....A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WOULD BRING ERIKA TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 26.1N 91.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 26.1N 94.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC