Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003
 
THE LAST RECON NEAR 12Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINED
AT 1008 MB. HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS...A GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  IN
ADDITION...A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40
KNOTS AT 12Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.   

ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS CONTROLLING THE STEERING CURRENTS
AND BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST....A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WOULD BRING ERIKA TO THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 26.1N  91.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 26.1N  94.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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