Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression SIX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20.  THE GFS SHOWS A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A POSITION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN FIVE
DAYS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AND POSITIONS IN THE
BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA AREA IN FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES.
 
WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF 20 KNOTS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INCREASED THE WIND SPEED
TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE PURE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO ONLY 46 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 53
KNOTS IN 5 DAYS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE. 
STILL..THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE WARM.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 65 KNOTS
THEREAFTER.
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...NONE OF
THE WEATHER SERVICES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 13.0N  50.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.4N  53.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N  56.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N  60.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N  64.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N  72.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N  84.0W    65 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC