ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20. THE GFS SHOWS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH A POSITION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN FIVE DAYS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AND POSITIONS IN THE BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA AREA IN FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES. WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF 20 KNOTS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INCREASED THE WIND SPEED TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. ONLY THE PURE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO ONLY 46 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 53 KNOTS IN 5 DAYS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE. STILL..THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 65 KNOTS THEREAFTER. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE WEATHER SERVICES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.0N 50.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.4N 53.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 14.0N 56.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.9N 60.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.1N 64.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 72.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 84.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC