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Tropical Storm DANNY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANNY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. 
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONE BURST NEAR THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST...AND THERE IS MINIMAL BANDING AT THIS
TIME.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  THE
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 55 KT BUT I SUSPECT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH.  DANNY HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER REASONABLY WARM WATER
AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. 
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND
UNTIL 36 HOURS.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
EXTRATROPICAL FORCING...SO AFTER DANNY PASSES OVER THE COOL WATERS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IT MAY SIMPLY DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 005/10.  THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...STEERING CURRENTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF DANNY
MAY MEANDER FOR SOME TIME.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 36.8N  56.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 38.4N  55.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 40.7N  52.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 42.5N  48.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 42.5N  43.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 41.0N  37.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 38.5N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC