ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANNY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONE BURST NEAR THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST...AND THERE IS MINIMAL BANDING AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 55 KT BUT I SUSPECT MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH. DANNY HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER REASONABLY WARM WATER AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND UNTIL 36 HOURS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF EXTRATROPICAL FORCING...SO AFTER DANNY PASSES OVER THE COOL WATERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IT MAY SIMPLY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 005/10. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STEERING CURRENTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF DANNY MAY MEANDER FOR SOME TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 36.8N 56.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 38.4N 55.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 40.7N 52.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 48.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 43.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 41.0N 37.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 22/0000Z 38.5N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC