Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
 
CLAUDETTE HAS AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WELL DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BARELY CLOSED OFF A
SMALL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000
MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 72 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET SUGGESTING THAT
CLAUDETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED 55 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME SHEAR...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN LEAVING
A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HIGH. THEREFORE... CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENSISULA AS A
HURRICANE.
 
CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 22 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHING A
DEEP EASTERLY MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM...24 TO 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE
RIDGE FORCING CLAUDETTE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN YUCATAN. AT LONGER RANGE...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS IF THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT. THIS VARIES WITH THE MODEL YOU PICK.
 
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 15.2N  73.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  76.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  80.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N  84.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N  87.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N  90.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.0N  92.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N  93.5W    55 KT
 
 
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