ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003 CLAUDETTE HAS AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BARELY CLOSED OFF A SMALL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 72 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET SUGGESTING THAT CLAUDETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED 55 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SHEAR...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN LEAVING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HIGH. THEREFORE... CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENSISULA AS A HURRICANE. CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 22 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHING A DEEP EASTERLY MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM...24 TO 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE FORCING CLAUDETTE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN YUCATAN. AT LONGER RANGE...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS IF THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT. THIS VARIES WITH THE MODEL YOU PICK. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.2N 73.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 80.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 90.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.0N 92.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 93.5W 55 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC