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Tropical Storm ANA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2003
 
YESTERDAY...DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WAS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL.  
RECENTLY...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF 
WISCONSIN-MADISON CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER ANA. 
LATEST AMSU DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE OR NO WARM CORE 
STRUCTURE.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANA TO BECAME A TRUE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON CLOSE.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT STRONG 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BY THE END 
OF THE PERIOD ANA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR WILL HAVE MERGED WITH AN 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

INITIAL MOTION IS 090/14.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY 
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ACCELERATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATE 
IN THE PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE 
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME SLOWING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO RISING 
SURFACE PRESSURES TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS 
IDEA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 29.6N  59.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.8N  56.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 30.7N  52.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  48.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 32.0N  45.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  40.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC