ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2003 YESTERDAY...DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WAS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER ANA. LATEST AMSU DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE OR NO WARM CORE STRUCTURE. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANA TO BECAME A TRUE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON CLOSE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ANA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR WILL HAVE MERGED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS 090/14. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ACCELERATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME SLOWING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS IDEA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 29.6N 59.2W 35 KTS 12HR VT 22/1800Z 29.8N 56.6W 35 KTS 24HR VT 23/0600Z 30.7N 52.5W 30 KTS 36HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 48.5W 30 KTS 48HR VT 24/0600Z 32.0N 45.0W 25 KTS 72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 40.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC