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NHC

Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory

Advisory Number: 15
0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

463 
WTPZ21 KNHC 310253
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.1N 124.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.9N 128.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 137.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 140.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS

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