Hurricane Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 232053
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Odalys' convective organization has not changed much in the past 
several hours. However, the hurricane continues to produce very deep 
convection near the center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as 
-90 C.  The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in 
at 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates of DMINT and ADT from UW-CIMSS 
showed values of 68 and 72, respectively. Given these data and the 
deeper convection, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.
 
Multiple microwave imagery passes helped refine the position for 
Odalys, requiring an amendment of the best track a bit to the south. 
The initial motion is estimated to be about 85/6 kt. Odalys is being 
steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its 
northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. 
The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northeast and then 
north, on the southeastern side of the trough in the next day or so. 
Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes ill-defined, and 
potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could complicate the track 
of Odalys late in the forecast period. There is considerable 
uncertainty at this time as the spread of the model envelope is much 
larger than normal. The updated NHC track forecast is near the 
previous advisory, and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast 
guidance.
 
For the next 48 h, Odalys is forecast to remain in a favorable 
environment that may allow it to strengthen or at least maintain its 
intensity. After that, the cyclone will move into an environment of 
stronger westerly vertical wind shear, lowered SSTs, and dry 
mid-level air. These environmental conditions will induce a steady 
weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows 
HCCA and GDMI, and aligns with the previous NHC advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky