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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABNT20 KNHC 271138
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the
Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the south and east of its center.  Upper-level winds are
not conducive for significant development during the next day or so
while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of
Florida at about 10 mph.  Environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for some development when the system moves
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.  Heavy rains are likely
to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today.  Gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the
Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys later this weekend.  Interests elsewhere in Florida and
the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of
the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before
this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday.  However, heavy
rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to
southeastern Texas during the next few days.  For additional
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure centered about 130 miles southwest of
Bermuda is producing winds of around 35 mph.  While shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased a little near the center during
the past few hours, any significant development of this system is
likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air.  This low
is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10
mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan