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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 232320

800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser
Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated
with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles has become a little better defined.  Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this
system could become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the
Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles.  Conditions could become
more conducive later this week while the system moves near the
southeastern and central Bahamas.  Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.  Interests from the islands of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.  Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Pasch