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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 220534

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and
surface observations indicate that the system has not become
better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected
before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this
morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or
Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited.  Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown