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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 118.6W OR ABOUT 370 NM 
W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES 
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM NE OF CENTER. INCREASINGLY HOSTILE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND 
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WILL CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N ALONG 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. 
THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT REACHING NEAR 
92W TUE MORNING AND 95W TUE NIGHT. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N TO 18N ALONG 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 12N WITHIN 45 NM W OF WAVE AXIS. 
THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT 15 KT. WEAK LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP NEAR WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ AXIS BY EARLY WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N96W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 08N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N125W 1010 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N137W 1010 MB TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW NEAR 11N125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 15N126W. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO 13N127W TO 13N144W. DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ZONE CONVECTION W OF 128W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR LOW NEAR 15N136W BUT AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST 
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...DUE TO PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. 
SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW 
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TUE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND 
SEAS N OF THE LOW.

N WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TUE 
MORNING WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL 
WAVE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...THEN AGAIN TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT DURING EACH PULSE.

SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 107W. SEAS WILL BE 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

$$ 
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-Jul-2014 02:45:34 UTC