229 
AXPZ20 KNHC 021526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N110W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is active from 05N to 08N east of 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure off Baja California is diminishing ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west, resulting in gentle to moderate
NW winds off Baja California, except for fresh winds funneling
off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, and Cabo Corrientes as noted in
earlier scatterometer satellite data. Light breezes continue 
elsewhere over the Gulf of California and the remainder of 
southern Mexico south of 20N. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in a 
mix of NW and SW swell, except for slight seas over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 
continue across the Baja waters through Sat morning, ahead of the
approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the Baja 
Norte waters Sat evening and reach the central Baja waters Sun, 
accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas across 
the Baja offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force westerly 
gap winds across the Gulf of California through Mon morning. 
Large NW swell will follow the front, with combined seas in 
excess of 8 ft reaching the waters off Punta Eugenia by early 
Sun, and Cabo San Lazaro Mon. Relatively benign marine conditions
will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through early next 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough continues to generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the nearshore and offshore waters from
Colombia to Guatemala. Weak high pressure north of the area 
supports gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly moderate 
southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft primarily in SW swell are 
found south of 05N.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes will persist across
the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador through 
early next week, with moderate SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A strong cold front is moving into the discussion area from the
northwest. High pressure ahead of the front is dissipating,
allowing winds to diminish over the region. Fresh trade winds and
seas to 8 ft are still active from 05N to 15N west of 135W, but 
gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in NW swell are
noted elsewhere west of 110W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to
6 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell are noted east of 110W.


For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
move across the waters north of 20N through late Sat, and reach from
central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high 
pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to locally 
strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front 
through the weekend, with strongest winds and highest seas 
occurring east of 130W.

$$
Christensen