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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JUN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N E OF 86W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 06N-12N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 127W FROM 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N-13N WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N85W TO 07N90W TO 07N96W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 09N104W TO 07N122W TO 08N131W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR WHERE A STRING OF WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVES INTERSECT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N123W EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE 
TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM A 1025 
MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 32N139W TO 22N121W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR 
16N132W...BUT OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER 
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
WED...EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS MENTIONED BELOW. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING 
TUE MORNING E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 82W...WITH 20-
25 KT WINDS FORECAST TO REACHING NEAR 94W EARLY WED MORNING. MAX 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Jun-2015 21:15:27 UTC