000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has analyzed along 88W, from the Gulf of 
Honduras southward through Central America and into the eastern 
Pacific to 06N. This wave is moving westward around 10 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 05N
northward into Central America between 83W and 91W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 11N85W to low pres
1010 mb near 10N88.5W to 11.5N104W to 09N116W to 10N135W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N135W to beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04N northward to
Central America east of 93.5W, from 06N to 15N between 93.5W and
107W, and from 07N to 10N between 109W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed through the northern Gulf of 
California southward along the eastern coastline of central and
southern Baja California, while high pressure prevails over the 
southwestern United States. The pressure gradient between these 
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh southerly  
winds through the Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf range 
from 2 to 4 ft except to 5 ft off of Cabo San Lucas. West of Baja
California, a 1036 mb high remains centered well northwest of 
the area near 39N147W and extends a ridge to near 22N116W. 
Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate 
NW winds occurring across the Baja offshore waters north of Cabo
San Lazaro, with fresh NW winds occurring north through west of 
Isla Guadalupe. These conditions persist into this evening. 
Rough seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell prevail across this area. 
Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas
of 4 to 6 ft in mixed northwest and south swell prevail offshore
of southern and southwestern Mexico to Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds will pulse to locally fresh
along the coasts of Baja California into Mon morning before 
winds diminish slightly through Wed. Rough seas north of Cabo 
San Lazaro are expected through Mon before seas slowly subside by
Mon night. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SE to SW
winds will continue to pulse into Tue as troughing prevails over
the region. Briefly strong winds will be possible in the 
northern Gulf Mon night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through midweek 
as low pressure moves south of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The southern extent of a tropical wave passing through Honduras 
and Nicaragua is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection
across much of waters south and east of El Salvador to Costa
Rica, with additional thunderstorms occurring nearshore of 
Panama and western Colombia. Strong and gusty winds and rapidly 
building seas are likely near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, 
afternoon scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to fresh
monsoonal SW winds and moderate seas south of the monsoon 
trough, along about 10N. Locally strong SW winds and rough seas 
to 8 ft are noted well offshore of Costa Rica and Panama, in
areas of active convection. To the north of 10N, moderate NE to
E winds are pulsing to fresh across the Papagayo region. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
develop across the Papagayo region tonight as low pressure
organizes to the southwest. Strong NE to E winds and locally 
rough seas are expected to continue in this region and expand
westward into the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala 
Mon into midweek as this low pressure strengthens to the south of
this area. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
subsequent gradual development of this low, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the 
system moves west- northwestward, and off the coasts of Central 
America and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible 
across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the early 
part of this week. There is a low chance of tropical formation 
within the next two days, and a high chance of formation within 
the next seven days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1036 mb high remains centered northwest of the area near 
39N147W and extends ridging south through southeastward across
the regional waters of the eastern Pacific. This system is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 13N and west
of 120W. Rough seas in mixed N and NE swell prevail over this 
region, with the highest seas to 10 ft occurring north of 28N 
and east of 125W. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and east
of 120W, gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas are 
noted. Otherwise, moderate S to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are occurring south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail 
north of 15N through Mon as high pressure prevails to the north, 
before winds diminish slightly for midweek. Rough seas north of 
15N will slowly subside west of 130W into Mon morning, and east 
of 130W Mon into Mon night. Elsewhere, cross-equatorial S to SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters this week, 
supporting rough seas in this region Mon night through late week.
Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough.

$$
Stripling