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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 131.2W 1007 
MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 29 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN 
THE S SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE 
QUADRANT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO 
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH WED AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 
LATE THU. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS 
S TO 10N ALONG 90W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE WAVE MAINLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 115W FROM 09N-16N MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EARLIER IS BECOMING 
ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N120W. THIS WAVE WILL 
LIKELY INTERACT OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA 
OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 139W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 15 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE 
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY WED. 

BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 07N119W 1007 MB WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
WAVE...MOVING W 15-20 KT. BANDS AND LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS 
CIRCULATION...WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 300 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT 
CONTINUES MOVING W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W TO 09N112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM  AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 
105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W 
AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
45N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N133W TO NEAR 22N115W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 15 KT WITHIN ABOUT 
180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 
6-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX ENOUGH BY WED 
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 
LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE BUT WEAKENING 
TRADE WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 
10N-18N W OF 135W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER 
WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS WNW. 
PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO HIGHER 
RANGES AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS FROM 
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE 
ADDED INGREDIENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY 
MID-MORNING WED. THE SWELL AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK BY EARLY 
THU.

$$ 
COBB


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 03:10:24 UTC