000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N92W to 09N101W
to 08N109W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
09N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the trough 
between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 87W-94W and between 110W-114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 28N121W. A ridge 
extends southeastward from the high to near 15N106W. A broad 
surface trough is across southern California, Baja Norte, and the
northern Gulf of California. The modest pressure gradient 
between these two features is producing moderate NW winds along 
and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters southward beyond Cabo
San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Seas across 
these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW swell. Farther 
offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, 
seas are near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of California, gentle W to NW 
winds are over the northern section while gentle to moderate 
northwest winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas in the 
Gulf are 3 ft or less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in S 
swell are in the entrance. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican
waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle along with seas
of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak ridge extending southeastward to 
offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through Thu 
before new high pressure offshore of California builds modestly 
across the Baja California waters Thu night through the upcoming 
weekend. NW swell moving through the offshore waters will 
continue to subside through tonight. Looking ahead, strong 
northerly gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Sat morning, 
leading to a late season northerly gale event Sat night and again
Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Monsoonal winds are leading to the development of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 05N to 09N
between 87W and 97W. Similar activity is along the coast of 
Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows light
to gentle SE to S winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds prevail across most of the waters south 
of the trough. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are over the Central
American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in
S to SW swell near the Galapagos Islands and adjacent waters 
south of the Equator.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 
persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 
Ecuador through Thu night before winds diminishing slightly
S of 10N through Mon. Moderate SW swell is entering the regional
waters today and will build across the area waters through Thu. 
Fresh easterly gap winds will return to the Papagayo region over 
the weekend becoming strong Mon night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad high pressure ridge continues over the waters W of
about 108W, centered on a weak 1018 mb high that is analyzed
near 27N122W. A dissipating front is just northwest of the 
discussion area. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail
west of about 130W and north of 05N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in
N swell. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are exist from 09N to 
15N between 112W and 130W. Seas over this part of the area 
6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Elsewhere north of 10N and W of 110W
winds are moderate or lighter along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
subsiding NW to N swell. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 100W
and 115W. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the 
region W of 110W will generally persist through Thu. A slow
moving weak cold front will approach 30N140W late Fri night or 
early Sat. High pressure building behind it will overtake the 
weakening front through Sun night. A tightening pressure gradient
spreading across the western and northwestern waters will act to
expand the areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to 
near 26N by Sun morning. Seas with these trades are expected to 
remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.

$$
Aguirre