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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192045
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 108.2W AT 19/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 150 NM W-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 NM 
S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 5 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 107W-110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 106W-112W. ON THE 
FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SW COAST 
OF MEXICO TODAY AND PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON 
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 9N84W 10N96W 12N112W 
14N122W TO 12N130W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E 
OF 80W TO COLOMBIA...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 83W-95W...FROM 9N-11N 
BETWEEN 95W-97W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 102W-110W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 
25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 120W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W ANCHORED WELL 
N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR 
AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$ 
PAW



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 20:45:53 UTC