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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 281003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
348 UTC Fri Oct 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


Tropical Storm Seymour has become post-tropical, and is located
near 22.4N 122.8W at 0900 UTC, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pres is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. A small area of sheared convection is seen
within 180 nm NE of the center. Seymour will continue to rapidly
weaken and dissipate by Monday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...a high pres ridge across
eastern Mexico continues to produce a tight pres gradient across
SE Mexico. As a result, strong N winds will continue to blow
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and spill downstream through Friday
night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force, with the strongest
winds occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
will build to 12 or 13 ft during the periods of gale force winds.
Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Monday night. Model guidance suggests Gales
will be possible once again Wednesday night through at least next
Friday night.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08N101W to low
pres 1010 mb near 10N110W to 10N119W, then resumes from 16N127W
to low pres 1010 mb near 13N132W to 10N138W. ITCZ continues from
10N138W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present within 60 nm either side of a line
from 15N130W to 12N135W.



See special features section for details on a persistent Gulf of
Tehuantepec high wind event. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail
across the waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula.
Winds will slowly diminish this weekend, as a dying cold front
moves E and the pres gradient weakens. 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell
will subside to 4 to 5 ft this weekend, then build to 6 to 9 ft by
Sunday as another cold front and a new pulse of NW swell moves
across the northern waters.

In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds are expected
today as an elongated NW to SE trough sets up across the gulf.
Low pres is forecast to develop in the far northern Gulf of
California by early Sunday. Winds SE of the low are forecast to
increase to fresh to strong Sunday, pulsing through early next
week. Seas will be 2 ft or less across the northern gulf through
the weekend, building to 4 to 7 ft as the winds increase, with 2
to 4 ft seas expected over the southern half during this time


Gentle to moderate W to SW winds are found S of the monsoon
trough, while gentle W to NW winds prevail N of the trough.
Latest altimeter data shows seas ranging between 4 to 6 ft,
primarily in long period SW swell. As SW swell decay, seas will
subside to between 3 and 4 ft this weekend.


A weakening cold front curves SW from 30N124W to 26N126W to
22N130W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring behind the front
and associated NW swell supports seas to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds are present ahead of the front. The front will stall by
tonight, then dissipate Saturday. NW swell generated behind the
front will continue to propagate SE and mix with seas generated by
Seymour. This will result in an area of confused seas from 21N to
26N between 119W and 125W through tonight. Another cold front will
reach the area tonight and bring a reinforcing batch of large NW
swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail W of 130W between
10N and 25N. Combined seas of 7 to 11 ft in this area today will
subside to between 7 and 9 ft tonight.