000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 01 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a western Caribbean Sea tropical wave
axis that is along 82W extends southward across Pacific waters 
to near 05N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted behind the wave from
04N to 08N between the coast of Colombia and the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near
11N75W westward to across northern Costa Rica to 09N91W to 
11N100W to 10N110W and to 08N124W, where it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of 
the trough between 90W-94W, and within 60 NM S of the trough
between 84W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
N of the ITCZ between 135W-139W, and within 30 nm of the trough
between 104W-108W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest satellite imagery depicts the remnant low of Alvin 
as a rather tight low-level cyclonic swirl that consists of 
mostly broken low to mid-level clouds located about 50 nm S of 
the southern tip of southern Baja California. It is moving 
northward around 10 kt. Scattered showers along with light to 
moderate rain are being generated by the remnant low. Latest 
surface observation from Los Cabos presently has heavy rain. 
Latest ASCAT satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong S to 
SW winds within about 120 nm of the low in the SE quadrant and 
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere within about 180 nm of the low,
except 90 nm in the N quadrant. Seas with the fresh to strong
winds are 8 to 10 ft (2.5 to 3 M).

The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters are under the
influence of a weak pressure gradient that supports moderate or 
weaker winds and mostly moderate seas.

For the forecast, the remnant low pressure of Alvin will 
continue moving northward tonight into Sun while losing its 
identity. Swells generated by former Alvin will continue to 
impact portions of the coasts of west-central Mexico and the 
southern Baja California Peninsula through Sun. Elsewhere, long- 
period SW swell will propagate through the offshore waters of 
southwestern Mexico tonight, producing rough seas through Sun 
before seas diminish early next week. Long-period NW swell will 
induce rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte early next 
week, then subside during the middle part of the week. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form by the middle 
part of next week offshore of the coasts of Central America and 
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
some development of this system thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form late next week while it moves generally 
westward to west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient in place is generally allowing for 
light to gentle winds over these waters, with the exception
of the offshore waters of southern Colombia and northern Ecuador
where winds moderate southwest winds are present. Seas over 
these waters are 6 to 9 ft in long-period S to SW swell, with the
highest of the seas to be SE through SW of the Galapagos 
Islands.

Latest satellite imagery reveals clusters of numerous moderate 
to strong convection over western Honduras, eastern El Salvador
and just offshore the far NW part of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, long-period southern hemispheric swell will 
propagate northeastward through the equatorial waters through
the rest of the weekend, promoting rough seas offshore of 
Ecuador through Sun, and well offshore of Guatemala and El 
Salvador on Sun. Seas will subside early next week. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form by the middle 
part of next week offshore of the coasts of Central America and 
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
some development of this system thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form late next week while it moves generally 
westward to west- northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1026 mb is analyzed N of the area near 32N139W,
with its associated ridging reaching to near 20N132W. Meanwhile,
a dissipating stationary front is just N of the high pressure
center. The pressure gradient between both of these features 
is inducing a swath of fresh N to NE winds over the NW and
western sections of the area W of a line from near 30N124W to 
20N135W and to 19N140W. Seas are 8 ft (2.5 M) in NW swell with 
these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are present over the far 
western part of the area from 10N to 19N W of 134W along with 
seas to 8 ft (2.5 M) in mixed NE and NW swell. Elsewhere, 
southern hemispheric swell is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft (2.5 
to 3 M) S of 16N between 122W and a line from 16N104W to 05N90W 
to just W of the Galapagos Islands, to the Equator at 86W and to 
03.4S82W.

For the forecast, the southern hemispheric cross-equatorial 
swell will slowly decay through late Sun. Fresh trades are 
expected north of 20N Sun into early next week as high pressure 
strengthens to the north. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong 
N winds and very rough seas will be possible north of 25N between
120W and 135W by the middle of the upcoming week as a weakening 
cold front approaches the region from the N. 

$$
Aguirre