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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 1500 UTC SEP 5 
MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 
KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. STRONG S-
SW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...SO KEVIN WAS DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW. THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN SHOULD OPEN UP TO A TROUGH IN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. REFER TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N106W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM NE 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE THAT 
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 97W N OF 10N MOVING W AROUND 
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 08N-14N 
BETWEEN 95W-100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO 09N83W TO 11N94W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N106W TO 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF 05N E OF 81W...INCLUDING WITHIN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. 

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST 
WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FOUND W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 
10N140W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK WESTWARD IN COVERAGE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND 
AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS. SEAS OVER 8 FT IN SW 
SWELL CURRENTLY LIE S OF A LINE FROM 00N89W TO 24N128W TO 
00N135W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WITHIN THIS 
SW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND 
RANGE...IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND 
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL 
BRING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

$$
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 15:54:47 UTC