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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 12N92W 09N94W 05N95W. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 05N to 08N
between 93W and 97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 04N to 08N between 91W and 93W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along 10N98W to 08N106W to a 1010 mb low
pressure center that is near 09N110W, to 10N115W, 08N123W, AND
08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to 08N128W, to 07N132W,
and beyond 09N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 06N to 08N between 100W and 103W.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 11N119W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate from 08N to 13N between
103W and 110W.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 08N110W. Convective
precipitation: Numerous strong from 08N to 09N between 104W and
106W...from 06N to 08N between 106W and 107W...and from 10N to
11N between 109W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 103W and 114W.

A tropical wave is along 12N92W 09N94W 05N95W. Scattered to
numerous strong from 05N to 08N between 93W and 97W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 08N between
91W and 93W.

Numerous strong from 03N to 04N from 79w eastward, and from 04N
to 05N between 79W and 80W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 90 nm on either side of the line from 06N80W to
08N85W to 10N88W.

Numerous strong from 11N to 13N between 86W and 88W, and from
15N to 16N between 93W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 12N to 14N between 90W and 92W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A cold front is about 240 nm to the west of 140w. The front is
being blocked by a surface ridge, that is along 20N110W 22N120W
26N132W beyond 32N135W. The forecast is for the front to become
stationary during the next 36 to 48 hours.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 11N119W. The low center is
forecast to move southeastward during the next 48 hours, and
become comparatively weaker than it is now. It is forecast to
merge with the 1011 mb low pressure center that currently is
near 08N110W. The wind speeds that will accompany this low
center will reach 20 kt or less for the next 48 hours. Expect
the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 02N to 20N
between 110W and 131W during the next two days.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 08N110W. The low center is
forecast to be quasi-stationary, moving a bit to the south at
first and then a bit to the north during the last half of the 48-
hour forecast period. The wind speeds will reach 20 to 25 knots
after about the first 12 hours, and then remain at 20 to 25
knots until the end of the forecast period. The sea heights will
range from 8 feet to 9 feet for the first half of 48-hour
forecast period, and then range from 8 feet to 10 feet during
day two, from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W.

$$
mt