000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280308
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 09.5N75W to 08.5N90W to 07N96W
to 07N93W to 08N108W. The ITCZ continues from 08N108W to 09.5N118W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 04.5N to 10N between 78W and 88W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 90W
and 118W, and from 02.5N to 10N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian 
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over NW and central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh
NW to N winds across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja 
California, and extend to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. A few 
areas of strong winds are noted across the central Baja nearshore
waters. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are prevalent across the Gulf of California with
seas of 2 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at 
5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder 
of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes 
and Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 
NE Pacific to sustain fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore 
waters, with locally strong winds this afternoon and evening. 
Winds across the Gulf of California are expected to be gentle to
moderate northwesterly over the southern and central Gulf through
Sun night. The high pressure will move east and weaken modestly 
Sun through the middle of next week, leading to weakening winds 
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 
the waters to the west of Baja California today, then become 
reinforced late in the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft 
across the outer waters of Baja Norte, and gradually shifting 
westward and increasing Sun night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms persist across the offshore waters 
north of 05N and E of 88W, affecting the near and offshore waters
from the Papagayo region to coastal Colombia. Gentle to moderate
SW winds generally prevail across this area, with seas of 4 to 5
ft in S to SW swell. Elsewhere W of the Papagayo region, winds
are variable at gentle to moderate speeds with 4 to 5 ft seas. S
of 05N to between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador gentle to
moderate S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region will remain 
SE to E at moderate or weaker speeds for the next several days. 
Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas will prevail 
elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises seas slightly 
across the regional waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, a 
more significant S swell is expected across the region late in 
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb center of high pressure near 34N142W extends a broad 
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The 
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 07N to 24N W of 120W.
Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 
24N and W of 125W, winds are moderate from the NE, with seas in 
the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate SE to S 
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell 
prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will continue from the ITCZ
to 22N, and west of 122W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to
locally strong. This will maintain seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate 
N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 22N 
through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja California 
Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and gradually 
spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast across the 
remainder of the waters through early next week.

$$
Stripling