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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 110 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JIMENA AS A 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE FEATURE 
OF ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...VERY WELL PRONOUNCED 
BANDING FEATURES ARE WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE...AND THE 
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY SYMMETRICAL IN APPEARANCE. 
THE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
EYE IN THE E QUADRANT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...30 
NM SE QUADRANT...5 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 120 NM SW QUADRANTS. THE WIND FIELD AROUND 
JIMENA IS QUICKLY EXPANDING WITH THE 20-33 KT WIND FIELD WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT FOUND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN 
THE NE SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW 
SEMICIRCLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 
JIMENA WILL BLOSSOM INTO A LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE DURING 
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE 12 FT SEA RADII IS FORECAST 
TO EXPAND AS JIMENA APPROACHES 130W-135W. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N84W TO 08N91W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N101W TO 08N109W TO 07N116W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 
97W-103W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HURRICANE IGNACIO W OF THE AREA NEAR 15N 145W AT 03100 UTC 
CONTINUES TO PULL  AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG 
WINDS THAT EARLIER IMPACTED A PORTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS 
NOW HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W OF 140W. HOWEVER...LINGERING 8-9 FT 
SEAS ARE WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N-17N W OF 139W. THESE SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
NEAR 26N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N113W. A WEAK TROUGH 
IS TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM NEAR 31N131W TO 26N135W TO 23N139W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS ADVANCING EASTWARD JUST 
N OF THE NW PORTION. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES 
FROM 32N133W TO W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
REACH THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE SAT WHILE WEAKENING. AN UPPER 
LEVEL IMPULSE EARLIER TRIGGERED OFF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM 
OF 24N135W. THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT MOVES NE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BROAD LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME 
OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO INTENSIFY. 

OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE JIMENA A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 17N-32N. GENTLE TO 
MODERATE SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA S 
OF ABOUT 05N...EXCEPT E OF 105W WHERE PATCHES OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH SLY WINDS ARE PRESENT.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT   
20-25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 9 FT BY THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
TO 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 03:09:13 UTC