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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N86.5W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 86.5W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 15N118W TO 18N117W TO 
24N114W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
WEAKENING UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 35N122W TO 16N126W...WITH 
REINFORCING ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAINTAINING A MEAN POSITION OF THE BROADER 
PERSISTENT TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 140W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING GRADUALLY SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
30N112W TO 24N114W TO 20N120W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS 
OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SW TO W WINDS 15 TO 
20 KT PREVAILING ACROSS PORTIONS N OF 30N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE THROUGH THE FULL 
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE STALLING JUST SE 
OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE TROUGH IS 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE 
COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1034 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 
40N142W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 25N118W. 
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL 
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE. 

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL 
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT 
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE 
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY 
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU 
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE 
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Mar-2015 03:42:10 UTC