590 
AXPZ20 KNHC 210323
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 101W from 03N to 
15N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N to 13N between 
94W and 107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Pacific near 10N86W and extends to
08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 10N east
of 92W, and from 05N to 07N west of 136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate N to NW winds prevail across the Baja California waters
and offshore of west-central Mexico as ridging extends over the 
region. Locally fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted 
north of Punta Eugenia, aided by the pressure gradient between 
high pressure to the northwest, and troughing over coastal 
California. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight seas 
prevail in the central and northern Gulf of California. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are 
occurring offshore of southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, fresh NW winds will pulse offshore of Cabo San
Lucas each night through this weekend as troughing prevails over
Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, occasional fresh NW winds are 
expected north of Punta Eugenia into this weekend as low pressure
remains over coastal Southern California. Rough seas generated 
by strong winds north of the area will occur offshore of Baja 
California Norte through Sat before seas slowly subside. Looking 
ahead, an area of low pressure could form by this weekend or 
early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of 
this system thereafter while it moves westward to west- 
northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph. This system has a low 
chance of tropical cyclone development through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring offshore of Costa 
Rica and Panama along and just south of the monsoon trough, and 
moderate convection is pushing offshore of western Colombia. 
Gusty winds and rapidly building seas are possible near 
thunderstorms. Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds prevail south 
of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate SE winds are 
noted to the north. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell prevail over 
the regional waters, with seas to 7 ft occurring south of the 
Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will develop 
in the Gulf of Papagayo on Wed, with pulsing fresh to strong 
winds occurring Wed night through this weekend. Locally rough 
seas may accompany these winds. Elsewhere, rough seas in SW 
swell will build south of the Galapagos Islands through Wed. 
Looking ahead, a long-period Southern Hemisphere swell will 
progress through the South American offshore waters this weekend,
promoting rough seas in the region. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as a 1031 mb high centered well 
north of the area extends ridging through much of the eastern 
Pacific waters. Recent SOFAR buoy data show seas of 7 to 9 ft 
north of 18N between 120W and 140W, in N to NE swell. Farther 
south, short period trade wind generated rough seas are 
occurring north of the ITCZ to around 15N, west of 125W. 
Elsewhere, a long period Southern Hemisphere swell is promoting 
rough seas of 8 to 9 ft south of 05N, as confirmed by recent 
altimeter satellite data. Winds in this area are moderate to 
locally fresh from the SE. 

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Wed as 
strong high pressure to the north prevails. Mainly moderate N to 
NE winds are expected north of 20N thereafter, as high pressure 
to the north weakens. Farther south, moderate to occasionally 
fresh trade winds will prevail through this weekend. Large N to 
NE swell will support rough seas north of 15N through Wed, and 
offshore of Baja California Norte into this weekend. Rough seas 
generated by fresh trade winds will continue from 05N to 15N west
of 125W through late this week. Elsewhere, a long-period S to SW
swell will promote rough seas across the equatorial waters 
through Sun.

$$
ADAMS