000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202155
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 12N104W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to
beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 03N to 09N between 77W and 85W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 103W
and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N
between 87W and 97W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific 
southeastward to near 24N114W. This ridge is supporting moderate 
to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas, and light to gentle 
winds between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 7 ft
in a mix of NW and SW swell south of Cabo San Lazaro. Elsewhere,
including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail,
with 3 to 4 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less
elsewhere. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder 
of the Mexican offshore waters. Smoke from regional agricultural 
fires has spread across the offshore waters over southern Mexico
which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the 
week. This will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the
Baja California peninsula through Sat night. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight. NW swell moving
across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through
Thu. Seas are expected to build 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia 
tonight through Wed, with seas subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light
concentrations of smoke due to agricultural fires is expected to
maintain hazy skies and may reduce visibility over portions of 
southern Mexico through Tue. Tropical cyclone formation is not 
expected during the next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous strong convection is impacting the offshore waters from
Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 02N between 77W and 86W, including 
the Gulf of Panama. These storms are bringing frequent lightning 
strikes and likely gusty winds and locally rough seas. Exercise 
caution in this area. 

South of monsoon trough around 07N, moderate to locally fresh 
winds are noted, including the South American offshore waters. 
North of 07N, gentle to moderate winds are pulsing in the Gulf 
of Papagayo but light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
6 to 8 ft across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters due to long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 
ft across the rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from 
agricultural fires across the region from Mexico may be impacting
areas as far as northern Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep 
impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For 
waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to locally fresh 
through Fri. North of 07N, light to gentle winds will prevail. 
Long period SW swell will continue to bring seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Tue. 
Seas of 5 to 7 ft will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
week. By the weekend, winds across the rest of the area will be
light to gentle. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb, located N of the forecast 
area near 40N142W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 14N 
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E 
trade winds from 06N to 31N and W of 115W. Seas are in the 7 to 
9 ft range within these winds in NW to N swell. Elsewhere south 
of 07N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
merging N and SW swell prevail W of 110W. South of the ITCZ, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW
and SE swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through 
the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade 
winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of 
the ridge, and mainly W of 130W. Winds could pulse to strong
through Tue. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to combine 
with northerly swell to dominate area waters through Wed before 
subsiding. Seas of 8 to 10 ft across the trade wind zone will 
begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.

$$
AReinhart