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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 272118

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


Tropical Storm Seymour continues to rapidly weaken, and is
located near 21.2N 123.1W at 2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is within 150 nm northeast of the
center. It will continue to rapidly weaken tonight, becoming a
post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon, and dissipate Sunday.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...a high pressure ridge across
eastern Mexico continues to produce a tight pressure gradient
across southeast Mexico. As a result, strong northerly winds
will continue to blow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and spill
downstream for the next two days, pulsing to minimal gale force,
with the strongest winds occurring during the overnight and
early morning hours. Seas will build to 12 or 13 ft during the
periods of gale force winds.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N101W to 11N118W,
then resumes from low15N130W to 10N140W. Minimal convection is
associated with the convergence zone. Small areas of active
convection are centered near 08N108W and 13N132.5W.



See special features section for details on a persistent Gulf of
Tehuantepec high wind event. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds prevail across waters offshore of the Baja California
peninsula. Winds will slowly diminish this weekend, as a dying
cold front moves east and the pressure gradient weakens. 5 to 8
ft seas in NW swell will subside to 4 to 6 ft this weekend, then
build to 6 to 9 ft by Sunday as another cold front and a new
pulse of northwest swell moves across the northern waters.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate northerly flow
will prevail today, with winds becoming light and variable by
early Friday as an elongated northwest to southeast trough sets
up across the gulf. Low pressure is forecast to develop in the
far northern Gulf of California by early Sunday. Winds southeast
of the low are forecast to increase to fresh to strong Sunday,
pulsing through early next week. Seas will be 2 ft or less
across the northern gulf through the weekend, building to 4 to 7
ft as the winds increase, with 2 to 4 ft seas expected over the
southern half.


Gentle to moderate west to southwest winds are found south of
the monsoon trough, while gentle west to northwest winds prevail
north of the trough. Latest altimeter data shows seas ranging
between 4 to 6 ft, primarily in long period southwest swell. Seas
will decay to 3 to 4 ft this weekend.


Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Seymour. A 1012 mb surface low is located near
30N130W, with a cold front extending south-southwest from the
low to 27N129W to 18N140W. Moderate to fresh northwest winds
behind the front and northwest swell supporting seas to 10 ft.
Gentle to moderate southwest winds prevail ahead of the front.
The front will weaken as the low moves north of the area Friday.
Its swell will continue to propagate southeastward, and mix with
seas generated by Seymour, resulting in a large area of confused
seas between 118W and 126W through Friday night. Another cold
front will reach the area late Friday, bringing a reinforcing
pulse of large northwest swell. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail outside of the influences of the front and Seymour, with
combined seas of 4 to 6 ft.