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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN   
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW SE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE 
NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOW 
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM WARNING TO PERSIST THROUGH 
48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY VERY BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO JUST 
LESS THAN STORM FORCE DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND TOMORROW. 
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW STORM FORCE BY FRI 
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS SAT. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS 
INDICATES SEAS OF UP TO 27 FT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE 
WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF AREA APPROACHING THE EQUATOR 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N98W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W... 
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 124W...WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...AND FROM 06N 
TO 09N W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SLIVER OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF S OF 30N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SUPPORTED 
BY A STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24 HOURS WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN AS WELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN 
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF FONSECA...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU... 
THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AND 
MORNING BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BREACHING THE FAR NW WATERS CURRENTLY NEAR 
30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN 
WILL BARELY SHIFT EASTWARD BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED WINDS 
HAVE DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER NW SWELL UP TO 12 FT 
WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 35N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE SW NEAR 28N128W AND TO THE 
SE TO NEAR 22N112W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N118W 
TO 09N125W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING  
A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS JUST W OF THE TROUGH 
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS...DIMINISHING BY 48 HOURS AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

OTHERWISE...MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 120W...AND ALSO 
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 114W AND 128W. THIS MIXED SWELL WILL 
DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE 
ONLY REMAINING AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BY FRI MORNING.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 15:21:57 UTC