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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291514
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 
LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-35 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THIS GALE EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING 
IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 90W-102W AND 
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 102W-115W AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 115-125W. 
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 
SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DECREASE TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD 
BY LATE FRI...AND TO 20-25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE 
GULF SUBSIDING TO AROUND 14 FT FRI AND TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA IS HELPING TO 
SET OFF MINIMAL GALE FORCE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS 
20-25 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT FROM 10N-11N W OF 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
ITCZ FROM 2N91W TO 7N130W TO 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM IS 
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ENTERING THE AREA AT 32N131W TO 
20N120W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR 
AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N W OF 125W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO 
11N117W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-28N 
BETWEEN 17N-120W. SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS SPREADING MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO N OF 15N.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI.

$$ 
DGS



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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jan-2015 15:14:40 UTC