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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ON
THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE SAT AT MINIMAL GALE WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF STRONG GALE
CONDITIONS ON LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH
SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO
MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 90W-103W THU AND
AGAIN ON SUN...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 93W-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU...BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE AND AGAIN REACH MINIMAL GALE THU NIGHT LATE THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SW AS 06N95W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT
NEAR 09N89W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 10 FT IN THE
LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 03N94W TO 06N101W TO
07N111W TO 04N127W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N89W TO 06N113W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 25N120W TO 16N105W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108W-
120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6
FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE NEAR 120W ON FRI AND REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-
108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF ABOUT 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT
NEAR 05N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF
NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N-13N W
OF 130W ON THU...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WIND
WAVES AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST LATE THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES
SE ACROSS THE TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N128W
CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 31N136W TO
27N140W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N139W TO 30N142W.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N
WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO
17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON
FRI.

$$
HUFFMAN