000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012101
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N90W to 10N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 10N105W to 08N120W to 09N130W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 07N138W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 02N to 05N east of 85W, from 06n to 09N between 100W and
105W, within 60 nm either side of ITCZ between 115W and 125W, 
and within 60 nm of low pressure near 07N138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11 ft 
combined seas west over the offshore waters of Baja California 
Norte, west of Guadalupe Island. This NW swell associated with 
strong winds off southern California, between high pressure over 
the northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland. Moderate to 
fresh winds are also noted off Baja California. An overnight 
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off 
Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with
moderate seas primarily in NW swell in open waters. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 
will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 
combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Winds and 
seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and Sun as 
the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. 
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California 
Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and dissipate Mon. 
Another round of large NW swell may follow the front. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off western Panama.
Farther offshore beyond 90 nm, a scatterometer satellite pass 
indicated short duration SW flow converging into another line of 
showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere recent satellite 
scatterometer data suggests winds are light to gentle across most
of the area waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in new S swell, except 
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, where altimeter data 
shows 6 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will 
support light to gentle breezes with moderate SW swell into early
next week, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging extends across the northeast Pacific, anchored by
1030 mb high pressure centered well north of the region near
37N135W. This pattern is supporting a large field of modeate to 
fresh trade winds from roughly 10N to 25N west of 125W, along
with 8 to 11 ft wave heights as noted in recent scatterometer and
altimeter satellite data. Scatterometer and alitmeter passes also
confirmed fresh to strong NW to N winds and 8 to 12 ft seas north
of 24N between 115W and 130W, between the high pressure and lower
pressure along the California coast. Trade wind convergence is
supporting active shower and thunderstorm activity along the ITCZ
between 115W and 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted
elsewhere along with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in a mix of N and SW
swell. 

For the forecast, expect little change in the pattern or
resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to
diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area
dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves
southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. $$ 
Christensen