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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES 
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW A BRIEF 
GALE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BASICALLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W 
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE BY SAT 
EVENING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N84W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 
88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NW CORNER N OF 24N W OF 120W DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N130W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 32N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS 
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND  
EXTENDS FROM 17N140W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 29N114W. A SHARP 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT THE NW CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE 
E REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. 
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE 
TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END 
OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 
30N143W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS 
THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 05N TO 18N W OF 127W. ALTIMETER DATA 
INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. 
ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING 
LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. 
MOREOVER...SOME 8 FT SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS OVER 
FORECAST WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL 
LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MORE SWELL...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE 
FROM 12N105W TO 12N100W TO 06N98W TO 06N102W TO 12N105W WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. 
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY... THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 89W PRESENTLY HAS WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO SUBSIDE BY THIS 
EVENING. 

$$ 
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Apr-2014 15:28:55 UTC