000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240247
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to low pressure 1009 mb 
near 09N89.5W to 11N98W to 08.5N125W to 07.5N132W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07.5N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 14N east of 96W,  
and from 07N to 12.5N between 97W and 122W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California 
through Baja California Sur and to 22N109W. Afternoon satellite 
scatterometer data showed gentle to locally moderate southerly 
winds through the full length of the Gulf of California, with a 
few areas of moderate SW gap winds, and moderate to fresh W to SW
winds wrapping around the southern end of the peninsula. Slight 
seas of 4 ft or less prevail through the Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad
ridge continues W of the region, extending from a 1034 mb high 
centered well northwest of the area near 38N149W to just north of
the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW winds prevail across the
nearshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, while farther offshore
winds are gentle to moderate. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in fading NW
swell generally prevail across the waters north of the
Revillagigedo Islands, except 8 ft northwest of Isla Guadalupe.  
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient continues over the remainder
of the Mexico waters and is supporting gentle to locally 
moderate winds eastward to Chiapas. Seas across these waters are 
4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Scattered moderate to strong
thunderstorms have begun to move southwestward over the coastal
waters within 90 nm of the coasts between Acapulco and Cabo
Corrientes.

For the forecast, little change in the overall pressure pattern 
is expected for the next several days across the region. Moderate
northerly gap winds occurring across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
this evening will increase to strong tonight through Thu as low 
pressure develops to the west of Papagayo, and strengthens as it 
shifts south of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri. Winds may reach to 
near gale-force Tue night through Wed offshore of Tehuantepec, 
with seas building to 8 ft and higher. Otherwise, moderate to 
occasionally fresh NW winds are expected across the Baja 
California waters through late week as high pressure prevails to 
the northwest. Rough seas to 8 ft offshore of Baja California 
Norte will slowly subside tonight. Moderate to locally fresh S to
SW winds will pulse inside of the Gulf of California through 
midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to strong convection continues across the 
Central American offshore waters from central Panama to
Guatemala. Gusty winds and rapidly building seas are likely near
thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the 
Papagayo region and extend offshore to 90W, and are feeding into
a developing 1009 mb low pressure center near 09N89.5W. Fresh
westerly monsoonal winds and seas to 8 ft are occurring in the 
vicinity of this low and extend southward to 04N between 85W and
93W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft in mixed SW and S swell prevail south of the monsoon 
trough.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue
across the Papagayo region through midweek as low pressure 
strengthens to the southwest, and gradually shifts westward. 
Fresh NE winds will expand through the waters offshore of El 
Salvador and Guatemala by Tue as the low moves south of those
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this low pressure system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by late this week or over the 
weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the
coast of southern Mexico. There is a low chance of development 
within the next two days, and a high chance within the next seven
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds continue north of 10N and west 
of 120W this evening, as a broad ridge persists over much of the
eastern Pacific, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered northwest 
of the area near 38N149W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell prevail 
offshore of Baja California, north of 24N and east of 126W. 
Farther west, residual rough seas to 8 ft, aided by locally fresh
trade winds, are noted from 09N to 27N west of 134W. South of 
the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are 
occurring with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds 
are expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into 
Tue as high pressure continues to the northwest. Winds will 
diminish slightly by midweek as the high weakens. Seas to 8 ft 
well offshore of Baja California Norte will subside tonight,  
and well as the waters across the trade wind zone west of 135W 
through Tue. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE swell will move through 
the equatorial waters over the next several days, promoting rough
seas south of 05N tonight through late this week.

$$
Stripling