000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042137 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 04 2024

Corrected forecast for the Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of 
Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern
Colombia, southwestward to the coast at 07N78W, and continues 
to 14N94W to 10N102W and to 08N110W, where latest scatterometer 
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
08N122W to 06N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen within 30 nm south of the ITCZ
between 126W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm 
of the ITCZ between 115W-117W, and also within 60 nm south of the 
ITCZ between 133W-135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

High pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively
lower pressure in Baja California continues to support gentle to
moderate northwest to north winds off the peninsula along with 
combined seas of 5 to 7 ft due to NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are generally light and variable, except light 
to gentle northwest winds over the southern part of the Gulf. 
Seas over the Gulf are in the range of 2 to 3 ft, except for 
slighter higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the northern part. Gentle to
moderate northwest winds continue over the southwestern Mexican 
offshore waters along with moderate seas in NW swell. Light to 
gentle west winds are S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14N, while 
light variable winds are S of 14N. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in S swell 
are to the S of the Gulf. Similar conditions are over the 
offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest winds off the 
Baja Peninsula will increase to moderate to fresh speeds this 
evening through Sun. Winds will further increase to fresh to 
strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro Sun evening through Mon 
morning as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte and the 
northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are 
also forecast for the northern Gulf of California starting this 
evening and again on Sun evening. Moderate to fresh winds across 
the Baja offshores will then diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds Tue night through Thu. Large NW swell with seas to 10 ft 
will follow the front, and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo 
San Lazaro Mon evening into Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Overnight scatterometer data indicates light to gentle southwest
to west winds over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Seas over those waters are in 
the range of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Satellite imagery shows
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of
Costa Rica, just offshore Colombia and scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms along and within 30 to 60 nm offshore 
Nicaragua. The scatterometer data also indicates light to gentle 
southwest to west winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Light 
to gentle southwest winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are present S of the monsoon trough 
along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, including the waters S of the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate south to southwest 
winds S of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore 
waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will
continue through the next few days. Light to gentle variable 
winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due
to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos 
Islands will change little into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the
area basically controlling the wind flow regime over the waters 
N of about. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and relatively lower pressures to the E from southern California
to the Gulf of California is allowing for mostly moderate
northwest to north winds to exist N of 25N and east of 124W.
Overnight scatterometer data displayed fresh to strong trade 
winds from 10N to 14N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds 
are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest of the seas occurring with the 
strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas remain.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the far western tropical
waters will diminish to moderate speeds Wed morning and prevail
the remainder forecast period. A weak cold front will drop 
S of 30N this evening, then gradually weaken as it moves 
southward across the waters N of 23N through early Mon. NW swell
following the front will impact the waters N of 24W and E of 
130W by late on Wed and through Thu before subsiding.

$$
Aguirre