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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 138.1W AS OF 01/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 1230 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII MOVING W NW OR 285 DEG AT 
13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 
KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO SLOW SOME AND TURN TO THE NW OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE W PERIPHERY OF 
WEAKENING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE 
WITHIN 90 NM ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT 60 NM E QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN BANDS 
WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. JIMENA IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 480 NM N AND 270 NM 
S OF THE CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS IS 
NEARLY CONCENTRIC WITH THE RADIUS OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS. BY 
00 UTC SEP 03...JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BE W OF THE AREA NEAR 
18.3N 142.8W...WITH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER AND WINDS 20-33 KT  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 13N-
25N W OF 136W. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS. 

RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED 12.4N 
112.8W AS OF 01/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 735 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS WHAT WAS FORMERLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM YESTERDAY HAD 
SINCE ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING MON. IN 
ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
INTENSITY IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
NEAR 13.2N 113.6W EARLY TUE MORNING...AND ONLY INTENSIFY A 
LITTLE AS IT NEARS 14.6N 114.7W BY TUE EVENING AND NEAR 18.1N 
115.9W BY WED EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA 
RICA AT 10N86W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N89W WITH THE 
TROUGH THEN CONTINUING SW TO 09N96W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12N106W 
WHERE IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN THE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N-10N 
BETWEEN 115W-116.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W-99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 119W-122W 
...AND ALSO SW OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N139W 
TO 09N135W TO 10N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32W136W TO NEAR 
28N129W TO NEAR 23N120W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N 
W OF 119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
TYPICAL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 15-20 
KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 23N WHERE 
THE TRADES GRADUALLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONE 
JIMENA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON TUE 
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT 
WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS N OF 27N E OF 123W TO THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN NW SWELL 
PROPAGATING S TO 23N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH EARLY TUE 
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MIDDAY WED. THE 1010 MB LOW 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N89W IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS FORECAST 
TO FORM TO THE SW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR OR 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE PROXIMITY OF 10N120W BY WED.

UPPER LEVELS...                                                 
BROAD TROUGHING N OF JIMENA EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE FAR NE PART 
OF THE AREA. TO ITS S...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 20N118W 
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN IT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FOURTEEN-E. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FOURTEEN-E TO MOVE IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Sep-2015 03:20:11 UTC