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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS COLLAPSED THIS
EVENING...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1030 MB HIGH
SHIFTING S ACROSS W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH
TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM
FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS
MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAXIMUM
SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO
20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS
SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 20 TO 30
KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO AREA AND DOWNWIND SOME 150-180 NM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NE WINDS OF20-
25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS
GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 04N100W TO 05.5N123W TO BEYOND
05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 136W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHERE
MAX SEAS ARE 7-8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE AND TO 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA REMAIN AT 20-25 KT N OF 29N...WHERE NW SWELL IS PRODUCING
SEAS 8-12 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN IN FAR NW
PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE...WITH STRONG S TO SW
WINDS MEANDERING ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 8-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING