Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W 
TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 
09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD 
FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM 
30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF 
20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO 
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 
22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE 
THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS 
MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE 
WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND 
1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD... 
ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME 
TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT... 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. 

$$ 
MUNDELL